According to DWF Ventures, trading on Polymarket and Kalshi has shifted sharply since the 2024 U.S. election. Politics, elections, and macro now make up a much smaller share of volume, while sports and parlay-style products are taking over.

That’s good for volume and liquidity, but it also raises a bigger question: are prediction markets still acting as “truth engines”, or slowly becoming more like sportsbooks?

The main concern is the RFQ parlay model. Retail users cannot see or verify how combinations are priced, which creates a clear information asymmetry.

At the same time, more casual volume can deepen liquidity, reduce manipulation risk, and help prediction markets scale beyond their early crypto/politics user base.

So the real challenge is not whether this shift is happening, it clearly is. The question is whether prediction markets can keep their forecasting edge while expanding into a broader entertainment audience.