Mark Zuckerberg has tasked a small team with building a standalone prediction-markets app, internally called Arena, that would put Meta head to head with Polymarket and Kalshi.

At first Arena would run on points rather than cash, closer to a game than a betting venue. Meta has not ruled out real-money wagering later, and insiders say the app may not ship at all. It would sit apart from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger.

Prediction-market volumes have jumped from about $50B in 2025 to over $130B in 2026, even as Polymarket faces a CFTC probe, the backdrop for Meta's cautious, points-first entry.