Blockchain analytics platform Bubblemaps revealed a new investigation tied to Polymarket, uncovering 9 connected accounts that allegedly generated over $2.4M in profit with a 98% win rate by betting on US military-related events involving Iran.

According to Bubblemaps, the accounts placed more than 80 highly accurate bets, often days before major geopolitical developments, including US military strikes, the reported elimination of Ayatollah Khamenei, and the US–Iran ceasefire agreement.

The investigation began with a bubble map tied to the Feb. 28 US strike market, where analysts identified a previously unnoticed cluster of wallets. Bubblemaps later linked 4 accounts to 5 additional wallets using timing and size analysis, with funds reportedly routed through centralized exchanges into shared wallet networks.

Bubblemaps stated that the case highlights the unprecedented transparency of onchain prediction markets, arguing that platforms like Polymarket allow independent investigations into suspicious activity because every trade, timestamp, and wallet connection remains publicly visible.