Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market in the US, is reportedly facing potential charges from the CFTC tied to the launch of certain wagers on its platform. A person with direct knowledge of the probe described the charges as potentially imminent.

The warning comes from the same federal regulator that has backed Kalshi in its fight with state authorities. In August the CFTC invoked emergency powers to keep Kalshi operating in New York, one of several states trying to restrict its event contracts.

Charges would mark a sharp turn in the relationship between the agency and the prediction market it oversees as a Designated Contract Market, at a time when federal protection is Kalshi's main defense against state lawsuits.