Brazil's Mercado Bitcoin froze deposits and withdrawals after a cyberattack with over $40M in suspected losses. It's the second exchange hack in four days, after Binance's $6.36B.

So what happens next? We traced the fate of all 69 exchanges hacked for $1M+ since 2011: half survived on their own, one in seven was sold and one in three is gone. The dead were mostly small, with a median hack of $6.5M vs $26M for survivors.

The best early signal is the clock. Survivors reopened withdrawals in a median of 5 days, the dead never did. Binance reopened in 2.4 days, survivor territory.

MB has no reopening date yet. That's the number to watch.