In his new essay, Hayes breaks down 5 core dynamics explaining how dollar liquidity, sovereign demand, and AI-driven equities shaped market in 2025.

1️⃣ Dollar liquidity is the main driver. Hayes argues that price action in BTC, gold, and equities is still primarily driven by changes in dollar liquidity

2️⃣ BTC lagged due to tighter liquidity. Reduced dollar liquidity was a key factor behind Bitcoin’s weaker performance in 2025

3️⃣ Gold outperformed on sovereign demand. Hayes explains gold’s strength by pointing to price-insensitive central bank and sovereign buying, driven by geopolitical risk

4️⃣ Gold is re-emerging as a settlement asset. Gold is increasingly used in trade settlement, not just as a passive reserve asset

5️⃣ AI supports equities despite macro pressure. Large-cap tech stocks remain resilient because AI has become strategically important and implicitly state-backed