Today we will discuss very important and popular questions: “Can Bitcoin update its peak values?” and “if so, when will this happen?”.
The market is full of people with polar points of view. Some are pessimistic, and believe that Bitcoin will never return to the same high price values, moreover, they are confident that in the end Bitcoin will completely depreciate. Others see the opposite of the market, and are confident of rapid growth to $ 100,000, or even $ 1,000,000.
Well, each of us has our own opinion, but the opinion of the market itself is more important. To understand this, we need to turn to technical analysis. Let’s look at the XHB chart – ETF of US home builders.
As we know, the American real estate market collapsed in 2008. If any of you watched the movie “The game for a fall,” then you know that some market participants knew about the collapse long before it happened. That is why they bet against the real estate market, starting from 2006, as can be seen from the graph. This is why TA is so important, it gives us more advanced ideas and tips on possible future events. Now let’s go back to the Bitcoin graphics from 2013 to 2017.
On the chart, we see that after the collapse of the market in 2013-2014, the bottom was reached in January 2015, after which the market recovered to previous values. The whole process took 3.25 years. Also, I would like to note that the bullish rally began after the price managed to hold above the moving average for 21 weeks, so we can conclude that this is a good indicator for determining the market reversal. Now to that shows us the current period.
Here I schematically depicted an idealistic view of the development of Bitcoin prices. If the price develops in a similar way with the previous cycle, then we can assume that the price will refresh its peak after approximately the same period of time, namely by 2021. The green line marks the bottom at $ 3,100 – $ 3,000 if the situation develops in this way it is fair to wait for a new rally in early 2021. The violet line marks a further price reduction to, for example, $ 2,000, or lower, after which the bottom will be reached. In any case, I believe that the market will form the bottom in the middle, or in the second half of 2019. At the same time, if the price can fix above the moving average for 21 weeks, then it would be logical to expect the peak to be updated by the middle of 2021.
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