On the monthly Bitcoin chart, we see a reversal candle, which is close enough to the moving average, so I expect $ 5,000.
On the weekly chart, we see a rebound to $ 3,950, the smaller the shadow of the candle this week, the stronger it will be for the further push of the price upwards.
The daily chart also speaks in favor of further growth, but I am worried about the CMF indicator, which indicates a false increase. Despite this, I hope that the price will reach $ 5,000, everything will depend on the moving average and the line of the setup.
The setup line is marked with red dots.
I think that the rally is not over as long as the price stays above $ 3,650. On the 12-hour chart, we see a completed correction.
If the price goes above $ 4,100, then we see no resistance to the $ 5,000 moving average. On the 4-hour chart, we see bullish intersection of moving averages and CMF indicator growth, which is a buy signal.
The number of open long positions with leverage has fallen dramatically, which creates the potential for growth. At the same time, the number of short positions remained at the same level, which could potentially lead to short-squeeze. That’s why I keep the bull mood.
I noticed that people draw parallels between the current price fall and the fall in January 2015, but I disagree with that.
I do not know how many people actually saw this fall, but I saw. First of all, I would not hold the support line in this way on the last bubble. This year we saw a test support line more than 5 times before it was pierced, which is not the case with the last bubble. I would have spent the last support line slightly higher (marked in red). Thus, I personally think that the current fall more resembles October 2014. I do not think that surrender can occur before 2019, since the timing of the formation of bubbles and corrections after them increase with each next cycle. I believe that the real capitulation is waiting for us in March-April of this year.
On this chart, the end of the bull market has to reduce the remuneration for mining, which makes sense. It is also worth bearing in mind that if the complexity falls, the reduction in remuneration may move back in time, as it happened last time, and happen after July 2020, and not in May. Moreover, the wait may be delayed until October 2020, which will prolong the bear market, given that people will buy Bitcoin in advance, waiting for a new bubble.
If the stock market crisis causes a crisis in the banking sector and affects deposits, do you think this is a bullish scenario for Bitcoin?
Do you think the recent growth was provoked by Roger Ver?
I do not know, I do not follow him. BCH has no weight, this coin is dead.
Do you think that the price will not be able to overcome the resistance by $ 4,200, which has been forming since November 20?
I still think that the price will go to the $ 5,000 zone, maybe even $ 5,500, before we see another decline.
Does your opinion affect the fact that many of your audience hold altcoins?
No, I advised not to touch the Shitkoin before I started my own YouTube channel. Sympathy for the holders of altcoins is in many ways similar to sympathy for holders of dot-com shares without a business. Many laughed at the fact that I did not get rich on the pump, but this goes against my principles. I have never had an Ethereum.
Do you think that on the weekly chart the price met resistance on the exponential moving average for 200 days?
I do not know, I do not think that the price will consolidate in this zone, we will see either a breakdown of this